Who pulled the plug in the Great Lakes?

The above picture was taken from a place that is normally under several feet of water. I've never been able to stand on this new island in the past 10+ years that my family has had their cottage on Grand Traverse Bay. These rocks are usually the source of much frustration for me, as I'm forever slipping on them, stubbing my toes, and cursing that they even exist as I try to swim out of the little channel that was hand dug over half a century ago.

This year, for the first time, they stick way way way out of the water, and my son and I were able to run around and throw snow balls at each other from from on top of them.

Trying to answer the question as to why the water levels are so low, I did some searching on NOAA's website, and found the following graph regarding the Great Lakes Water Basin. You can see that the last several years has seen a significant decline in the average water levels, as the average water level is well below the mean average.

Where is all the water going, I'm left to ask?

I've heard rumors that a recent dredging on the St. Claire river is to blame. I've also heard that the Chicago River is drawing more and more water to help keep a draught affected Mississippi river full enough that commercial shipping can remain functioning. Another theory states that the lakes run on a cycle within which the levels fluctuate over time, but maintain a mean level, as evidenced by the graph above.

None of the above listed answers can explain why the levels have remained so low for the past several years, though.

In doing some digging on the net, I found some other theories as provided by scientists.

According to researcher Cynthia Sellinger at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, she states that "Since 1978, there's been a long-term decline in precipitation and a long-term increase in evaporation."

"What we have here is the ground is frozen, the water doesn't return," Sellinger said. "It puddles and evaporates and gets lost into the global system."

This would seem to make sense, given that in recent years, we've seen unprecedented warming trends in months that would normally be well below the freezing level.

In the past week, we've seen temperatures in South West Michigan in the '60's, which is extremely abnormal for January.

Last year, at about this same time, we saw a similar warming event, with neighbors of mine even wearing sandals to a local campfire get together.

I still remember the winter of '78 from my childhood. In pictures taken by my mother, a snow drift of over 10' can be seen our backyard, with a bunch of us kids making a snow fort inside it. Snows of that magnitude have not been a gift my children have had the wonderful experience to partake in.

Fog covered our environment here for several days last week, like something out of an eerie movie. This intense melting and evaporation would match the statements made by NOAA, but I'm still left to wonder....

will our grand lake waters ever return?

Although I find the facts given by NOAA interesting, I still am not entirely convinced that the source of the problem has been fully discovered. I plan to continue investigating and attempting to post any information I find back here.

jp